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Category: Commentary

October 2018 Review & Outlook

Posted on by jvavra

Review

In the 3rd quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 had its best quarter since 2013. The index returned more than 7% for the quarter. The quarter saw a continuation of strong consumer retail sales and manufacturing data. Those positive data points, along with a robust employment environment and record corporate earnings, signify a healthy US economy. Inflation remained calm even with such strong momentum in the US economy. However, the US Federal Reserve raised rates for the 3rd time in 2018 bringing the federal funds rate from 2.00% to 2.25%.

Outlook

As fantastic as the 3rd quarter was, the same cannot be said so far for the 4th quarter. We are through a very disappointing first month which saw the S&P 500 retreat almost 7%. The decline was the worst month since September 2011. There are a few factors that led to the decline and areas to watch as we close out the year. Continue reading “October 2018 Review & Outlook” →

July 2018 Review & Outlook

Posted on by jvavra

Review

The second quarter of 2018 was significantly more volatile than we have seen during the almost 10 year bull market we are currently experiencing. Markets seemed to move on a daily basis depending on the rhetoric surrounding the tariff situation between the US and the rest of the world. In an attempt to avoid volatility due to the trade disputes, investors found some safety in small cap stocks since earnings of large cap multi-nationals could be affected if there is an extended dispute. Fixed income experienced another rough quarter as interest rate rises have a negative effect on bond prices in general. Continue reading “July 2018 Review & Outlook” →

January 2018 Review & Outlook

Posted on by jvavra

Review

2017 was a continuation of one of the longest equity bull markets in US history. The year ended with a return in the S&P 500 of 19.42%, which was one of the best years of this multi-year run. The fourth quarter of 2017 provided returns in the S&P 500 of 6% on the momentum provided by the corporate and individual tax reform. A rare combination of global economic growth, accommodative economic policies, record corporate earnings and tame inflation provided the recipe for a strong year for stocks and a bull run that continues to be one for the record books.

Internationally, economic recovery and growth continued and reflected in equity prices as foreign markets even tended to outperform the strong US markets. With the US recovery more mature than that internationally, especially the Eurozone, the trend is likely to continue. Continue reading “January 2018 Review & Outlook” →

OCTOBER 2017 REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Posted on by jvavra

Review

The third quarter of 2017 was one for the record books with the S&P 500 posting its first positive September since 2013 and closing at a record high. In addition, the Dow posted its first consecutive 8 quarter positive streak in 20 years. A strong September pushed US markets higher on the heels of firmer global inflation readings, the hope for US tax cuts and a stronger US dollar. Continue reading “OCTOBER 2017 REVIEW & OUTLOOK” →

May 2017 Review & Outlook

Posted on by jvavra

Now that tax season is behind us and Spring is in the air, let’s take a look at the first quarter of 2017 and the outlook going forward.

Review

US stock markets got off to a great start in 2017 as both corporate earnings and economic data continued to improve. However, March was more volatile as President Trump was unable to pass a new healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. The inability to pass a new healthcare bill decreased hopes of a tax plan that would reduce both corporate and personal tax rates and bolster spending and growth to the US economy. Despite the March volatility, US stock indexes were still able to produce impressive returns of around 6% for the quarter. Continue reading “May 2017 Review & Outlook” →

January 2017 Review & Outlook

Posted on by jvavra

With the presidential inauguration behind us, it is now time to reflect on the past year and look forward to the outlook ahead.

Review

The volatility that was prevalent in the markets the first three quarters of 2016 transferred into volatility of emotions in the 4th quarter. The election night surprise of Donald Trump winning the presidential election had investment managers bracing for an immediate sharp reactionary selloff. At one point in the early hours of Wednesday morning, the S&P futures were down significantly. Thankfully as the news was digested, and regardless of personal opinions of President Trump, the US stock markets opened nearly flat. Continue reading “January 2017 Review & Outlook” →

Review and Outlook – October 2016

Posted on by jvavra

Review

Continued volatility remained the main theme of the 3rd quarter. Although economic conditions in the U.S. seem to be stabilizing, questions surrounding international economies, interest rate hikes and the presidential election contributed to near daily fluctuations the markets have avoided during most of the current multi-year bull run. Continue reading “Review and Outlook – October 2016” →

April 2016 Commentary

Posted on by jvavra

As we entered 2016, the factors that led to the volatility throughout the 2nd half of 2015 persisted. After one of the worst ever starts to a year, a rally in March led to the S&P 500 ending positive for the quarter.

Uncertainty in the financial markets leads to volatility. There was uncertainty about the price of oil, US interest rates and the overall health of the global economy. Continue reading “April 2016 Commentary” →